Advertise with

Namibia's Inflation in 2014 seen at 6,5% after rebasing
Namibia's Inflation in 2014 seen at 6,5% after rebasing

Namibia's Inflation in 2014 seen at 6,5% after rebasing

FMCG SUPPLIER NEWS - Dec 5th, 09:41

SIMONIS Storm Securities expect inflation to hover above 6,5% next year based on a lower base this year but additionally based on the price movements in key categories.

In November, the Namibia Statistics Agency rebased the Namibia Consumer Price Index (NCPI) from the one used since 1994, so that it could reflect current consumer patterns.

“As a result of the rebasing and reweighting of the NCPI, we have revised our forecasts for future inflation rate numbers. October’s inflation numbers are 4,9% while our estimates stood at 4,8%. For November, we expect the basket to grow to 104,9 and the annualised inflation numbers to come in at 4,6%. During 2014, we expect inflation to hover above 6,5% based on a lower base this year but additionally based on the price movements in key categories,” SSS said in a report.

The report said in the food and non alcoholic beverages category, the weight has been revised downwards from 29,6% to 16,3%.

“The index therefore rose from 103,5 in September to 104,6 in October. This represents a monthly increase of one percent and a subdued year on year growth of 4,8%. The data suggests that the previous weight in this category may have overstated the inflation numbers. According to the NSA, spending patterns have changed an “average” Namibian spending a smaller proportion of their income on food,” the report said.

The housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels category saw its weight increased from 20,6% to 28,4%.

“This is evidently based of increasing prices of houses and utilities. The year on year growth figures show a subdued growth of 3,3%. In line with our expectations, the agency increased the weight of the subsector of communications from 0,9% to 3,8%. The weight should theoretically capture movement in pricing of telecommunication devices and services offered in Namibia,” SSS said.

The alcoholic beverages and tobacco category saw its weight has increased substantially from 3,3% to 12,6%.

“The warranted change is based on adjustments the Agency has made for suspected underreporting that may have occurred during the publication of the NHIES survey. Additionally, adjustments have been made based on price changes between that period and the current base year. The implication is that an “average” consumer spends 12% of their income on alcoholic beverages and tobacco,” SSS said. From 

Related News

Production data lifts rand to week high
11/12/2013 - 09:25
Johannesburg - The rand gained to its strongest in nearly a week on Tuesday after upbeat mining and manufacturing data improved economic growth prospects.

South African economic growth “held back”
04/12/2013 - 08:46
The growth of the South African economy was held back and activity slowed in the third quarter of 2013, the SA Reserve Bank said on Tuesday.

Consumption forecast growth drives mall mania, Report, Gabarone
18/11/2013 - 10:21
There is a proliferation of shopping malls in Gaborone, in the last decade, raising questions of whether locals have the spending power to sustain the malls, economically. Property developers concede that the retail property market is subdued but remains one of the most viable business propositions to date.

Motorola plans comeback through low-cost phones
15/11/2013 - 08:16
Motorola is betting that low-cost smartphones can provide the spark to rekindle its struggling business, even as the company’s ownership by Google Inc will force it to sit out of China, the world’s largest smartphone market.

Choppies Supermarket buys stake in Zim company
14/11/2013 - 12:09
Retailer, Choppies Enterprises Limited is said to have gone into agreement with an unnamed Zimbabwean company to acquire 49 percent of its total share holding. The unnamed company is believed to be in the business of running supermarkets and it is understood to be running ten retail stores in Zimbabwe.